Monday, November 29, 2021
News of a new, highly virulent COVID variant triggered a market sell-off on Friday, sending stocks into negative territory for the week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.97%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slumped 2...
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Monday, November 22, 2021
Stocks were mixed last week in choppy trading as investors battled the crosscurrents of good economic data and a troubling rise in COVID-19 infections globally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.38%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Stocks posted small declines last week as investors digested recent stock market gains and an unexpectedly high inflation read.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.63%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 retreated 0.31%. The...
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Monday, November 8, 2021
A Federal Reserve announcement on tapering, a fresh batch of corporate profits, and encouraging economic data lifted stocks to another weekly gain.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Monday, November 1, 2021
A fresh wave of positive corporate earnings surprises sent markets to new record highs last week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.40%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 1.33%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked...
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Monday, October 25, 2021
Stocks rallied last week on a stream of positive corporate earnings surprises.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.08%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 1.64%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 1.29% for the week....
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Monday, October 18, 2021
A strong opening to the third-quarter earnings season sparked a late week, broad-based rally that helped stocks finish the week with solid gains.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.58%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Monday, October 11, 2021
The overhang of bumping against the federal debt ceiling was lifted last week with an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through early December, helping propel stocks to a weekly gain.The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1...
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Monday, October 4, 2021
Higher bond yields and a legislative stalemate in Washington, D.C., added up to losses for the week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.36%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 2.21%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell...
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Monday, September 27, 2021
Stocks prices were whipsawed last week, dragged initially lower by financial contagion worries and later lifted by a supportive Fed policy statement.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.62%, while the Standard & Poor’s...
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Monday, September 20, 2021
Stocks weakened ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and amid persistent concerns about the Delta variant’s impact on the economy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat (-0.07%), while the Standard &...
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Monday, September 13, 2021
In a quiet week of news, stocks moved lower amid simmering concerns over the Delta variant’s effect on the progress of economic reopening.The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.15%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Monday, August 23, 2021
Stocks turned lower last week amid the increasing probability of a Fed tapering, mixed economic data, and growing concerns about the economic impact of the Delta variant.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.11%, while the...
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Monday, August 16, 2021
Looking past inflation figures and Delta variant trends, stocks last week found a way to climb higher and set fresh record highs in the process.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.87%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Monday, August 9, 2021
Overcoming jitters about the Delta variant and the reintroduction of mask requirements, stocks climbed higher on strong employment data and a fresh batch of strong corporate earnings.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% while...
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Sunday, August 1, 2021
The stock market posted small losses last week despite a very strong showing by corporate America.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.36%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.37%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped...
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Sunday, July 25, 2021
Overcoming a COVID-related economic growth scare, stocks moved higher amid a week of strong corporate earnings reports.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.08%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.96%. The Nasdaq...
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Monday, July 19, 2021
Despite a good start to earnings season and some solid economic data, worries of slower second-half economic growth led to a pullback in stock prices last week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.52%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, July 12, 2021
Stocks managed small gains as investors wrestled with concerns over economic growth prospects and a rise in COVID-19 infections.The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.24%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.40%....
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Monday, July 5, 2021
Strong employment reports and rising consumer confidence sent the stock market broadly higher last week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.02%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 picked up 1.67%. The Nasdaq Composite index...
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Monday, June 28, 2021
Stocks reached new all-time highs last week as markets staged a strong rebound from the previous week’s declines.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.44%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 picked up 2.74%. The Nasdaq...
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Monday, June 21, 2021
New messaging from the Federal Reserve on interest rates and inflation last week led to a broad retreat in stock prices.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.45% while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 1.91%. The Nasdaq...
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Monday, June 14, 2021
Stocks ended the week mixed as investors appeared to shrug off a hotter-than-expected inflation report.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.80%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 0.41%. The Nasdaq Composite...
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Monday, June 7, 2021
A strong, but not too strong, employment report sparked a rally on the final day of trading, propelling stocks to a modest gain for the week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 0.66%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Tuesday, June 1, 2021
Optimism over the economic reopening and renewed enthusiasm for technology and other high-growth companies powered the stock market higher last week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.94%, while the Standard & Poor’s...
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Monday, May 24, 2021
Stock prices fluctuated amid inflation concerns and bargain hunting, leaving stocks mixed for the week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.51%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 0.43%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq...
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Monday, May 17, 2021
A surge in consumer inflation unsettled investors, leading to a turbulent week of trading on Wall Street.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.14%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.39%. The Nasdaq Composite index...
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Monday, May 10, 2021
Stocks closed mixed last week as signs of continued economic recovery and upbeat earnings helped some sectors while the struggles persisted for high-growth companies.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.67%, while the Standard...
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Monday, May 3, 2021
Stocks meandered around a flatline in a busy week of corporate earnings, ending the trading week slightly lower.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.50%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 was flat (+0.02%). The Nasdaq...
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Tuesday, April 27, 2021
The crosscurrents of strong corporate earnings, rising global cases of COVID-19, and the specter of higher capital gains taxes led to a choppy week of trading that left stock prices slightly lower for the week.The Dow Jones Industrial...
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Sunday, April 18, 2021
Stocks reached record highs last week, riding the tailwind of improving economic data and a strong start to the earnings season.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.18%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.37%. The...
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Monday, April 5, 2021
Overcoming a rocky start, stocks rallied into the close of a holiday-shortened week of trading as technology shares staged a powerful recovery and investors reacted positively to President Biden’s infrastructure spending...
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Tuesday, March 30, 2021
A rocky week with wide price swings led to mixed results for stocks last week, as investors grappled with anxieties over economic growth and weakness in technology and other high-growth stocks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1...
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Monday, March 22, 2021
Rising bond yields and improving economic conditions led to a choppy week of trading that ended in modest losses for investors.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.46%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined 0.77%. The...
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Monday, March 15, 2021
Stocks touched new record highs last week as bond yields steadied, a fiscal relief bill was signed into law, and confidence in a strong economic recovery grew.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.07%, while the Standard &...
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Tuesday, March 9, 2021
Stocks were mixed last week as rising bond yields and heightening inflation fears sent stocks on a wild ride, capped by a remarkable Friday afternoon rally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.82%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, March 1, 2021
Stocks dropped amid rising long-term bond yields, with sharp declines in high-valuation growth stocks leading the overall market lower.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.78%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined...
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Monday, February 22, 2021
Rising bond yields dampened investor enthusiasm for high-multiple growth companies last week, sending market averages mostly lower in a holiday-shortened week of trading.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.11% for the week. But...
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Monday, February 1, 2021
Despite strong corporate earnings, stock prices closed lower after a volatile week of trading triggered by unprecedented activity in a handful of companies.The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.27%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, January 25, 2021
Anticipation of a new fiscal stimulus and improved vaccine distribution powered stocks to fresh record highs last week with technology stocks leading the way.
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Monday, January 18, 2021
Markets drifted lower last week as uninspired investors digested mixed news on the economic front. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.91% while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slid 1.48%. The Nasdaq Composite index stumbled 1.54%...
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Monday, January 11, 2021
The Week on Wall Street Shrugging off COVID-19 infections and the disruption at the Capitol on January 6, stocks powered higher to kick off a new year of trading.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.61%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, January 4, 2021
The Week on Wall Street Stocks moved higher during a holiday-shortened week of trading, capping off a turbulent, but otherwise strong year for equity investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.35%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, December 21, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks climbed higher amid the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and an improving outlook for a fiscal stimulus bill.The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has lagged all year, gained 0.44%. The Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Monday, December 14, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks retreated last week on rising COVID-19 infections and slow progress on an economic relief bill. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.57%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 0.96%. The Nasdaq...
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Tuesday, December 8, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks marched higher last week on an improving outlook for the passage of a fiscal stimulus package. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.03%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 tacked on 1.67%. The Nasdaq...
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Monday, November 30, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks surged last week, ignited by another COVID-19 vaccine announcement, encouraging economic data, and the easing of political uncertainty.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.21%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, November 23, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetDespite news of another COVID-19 vaccine candidate, stocks were mixed amid investor anxiety over an increase in new infections and economic lockdowns.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.73%, while the...
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Monday, November 16, 2020
The Week on Wall Street News of a COVID-19 vaccine ignited a rally in economically sensitive stocks and a broad retreat in technology companies last week, though enthusiasm was tempered by reports of rising new infections and fresh...
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Monday, November 9, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks soared last week as investors anticipated that a split Congress would raise legislative hurdles to changing corporate taxes and adjusting regulatory oversight of big technology companies.The Dow Jones...
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So…we had an election. It has gone down to the wire. At the time of this writing mid-day November 4 the votes are still being counted. America's politics have significantly de-matured since the contested election in 2000...
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Monday, November 2, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stock prices dropped last week as hopes for a fiscal stimulus bill faded and investors focused on rising COVID-19 infections, here and abroad. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 6.47%, while the Standard &...
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Monday, October 26, 2020
The Week on Wall Street The failure to reach an agreement on a new fiscal stimulus bill soured investor sentiment and sent stocks modestly lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.95%, while the Standard & Poor’s...
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Monday, October 19, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks treaded water last week amid fading prospects for a stimulus bill, fears of a second wave of COVID-19 cases, and increasing political and regulatory pressures on Big Tech companies.The Dow Jones...
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In my latest dispatch, I discuss the resources I look at when analyzing the current snapshots of where we are in the corona pandemic, as well as where I think we're headed this Fall and beyond.The current wave has key differences from...
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The previous two dispatches touched on the best-case scenario and the "not good" scenario, and why both indicate the public health response and the economic recovery can't even begin before there's a vaccine. Now, let's pull back a...
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There are many reasons why we should not assume a vaccine will return life to normal. I discussed some of these in the first part of this dispatch on the best-case scenario. But it is more complicated than that. For part two in this...
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Even in the best case scenario, a coronavirus vaccine can't be rolled out fully to the general American population until the second quarter of 2021. But that only marks the beginning of the end. Please click above to watch video.
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Monday, October 12, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks staged a powerful rally last week, riding a wave of optimism over the prospect of the passage of a new fiscal stimulus bill.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.27%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Monday, October 5, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks advanced last week, propelled by hopes that legislators may reach an agreement for a new fiscal stimulus package and optimism generated by a few corporate deal announcements and initial public offerings....
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The pullout of US troops in the Middle East is likely to continue after November's presidential election. We're already seeing significant changes in how the Middle East works, including what sorts of antics local players can get into...
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The results of the November presidential election are unlikely to change the trajectory of US-Chinese relations over the past decade. But Beijing's biggest challenges don't lie with the US. As the Chinese government continues to...
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Russia and Europe are tilting toward confrontation. The European defense posture for the past 70+ years has been predicated on NATO--a fancy acronym for "the United States is our security guarantor." What can Europe expect following...
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Mountain living can be...challenging. In the first of a series of video dispatches this week, I make lemons from lemonade and discuss the looming international challenges facing the American presidency, no matter who wins in November...
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Monday, September 28, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks were mixed last week as worries that stretched from Washington D.C., where prospects of a new fiscal stimulus bill dimmed, to Europe, which saw an increase of new COVID-19 cases.The Dow Jones Industrial...
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I normally try to stay out of American politics. My work is in the wider world, the American system is remarkably stable and self-regulating, and if I'm to be completely honest, making domestic political forecasts tends to burn bridges...
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Monday, September 21, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks slipped as the technology sector remained under pressure and a mid-week announcement by the Federal Reserve failed to inspire investors.The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.03%, while the Standard...
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Last week the American ambassador to China, Terry Branstad, attempted to publish an op-ed with his assessment of American-Chinese relations. The Chinese Communist Part summarily squashed it, banning the op-ed in all Chinese...
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Monday, September 14, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks traveled a volatile path last week as investors appeared concerned about the upcoming elections, an uncertain economy, and more delays with additional fiscal stimulus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average...
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Tuesday, September 8, 2020
A late week sell-off sent stocks broadly lower as investors took some profits after stocks reached all-time highs earlier in the week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.82%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slumped 2.31%...
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Monday, August 31, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks advanced relentlessly last week on positive COVID-19 developments, encouraging economic data, and a supportive policy shift in the Fed’s approach to its target inflation rate. The Dow Jones Industrial...
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Monday, August 24, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks powered to another week of gains as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set multiple new record highs along the way.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially unchanged while the Standard & Poor’s 500...
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Monday, August 17, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStock prices drifted higher in an otherwise quiet news week, as a slowdown in new COVID-19 cases outweighed a Congressional impasse on a new fiscal-spending measure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81%...
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Thursday, August 13 the Trump administration released a series of breathless communiques proclaiming the onset of formal peace and diplomatic recognition between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Shortly thereafter the Israeli...
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The coronavirus epidemic in the United States continues to accelerate. Much of the recent news has been about ongoing and unprecedented caseload increases in the large states of California, Texas and Florida. While I pride myself on...
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Monday, August 10, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetOverlooking stalled efforts by Congress to pass a new fiscal stimulus bill, stocks marched higher last week with the Dow Jones Industrials leading the way and the NASDAQ Composite setting multiple fresh record...
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Monday, August 3, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks were mixed last week amid a busy week of earnings, some troubling economic data, and seemingly little progress on a new fiscal stimulus package.The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.16%, while the...
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Monday, July 27, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks slipped in the final days of trading last week on higher jobless claims and rising tensions in the U.S.-China relationship. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.76%, while the Standard & Poor's 500...
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Monday, July 20, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStocks were mixed last week as investors reacted to positive economic data, progress on a COVID-19 vaccine, and the continued nationwide increase in COVID-19 cases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.29%,...
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Monday, July 13, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStock prices notched solid gains last week, looking past an increase in COVID-19 cases and any potential economic concerns raised by the trend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.96%, while the...
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Thursday, July 9, 2020
Americans who have been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic may now be able to access retirement accounts to help cover daily expenses, penalty-free.Now, in addition to those who have lost their jobs during the COVID-19...
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Monday, July 6, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetIn a holiday-shortened week, stock prices turned higher as encouraging economic data outweighed an increase in COVID-19 cases and a rollback in economic re-openings.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.25%,...
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Getting reliable oil data on any country outside the United States is very nearly an exercise in futility. Even a country with "good" data like the United States sources that data from a half dozen separate bureaus and 50 different...
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Monday, June 29, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetA jump in COVID-19 cases dampened investor enthusiasm last week, sending stock prices lower on worries that rising infections could derail the economic recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 3.31%,...
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Unlike most countries in East Asia or Europe, the United States never managed to get its caseload under control. Between the economic re-openings, Memorial Day parties, and ongoing protests against police violence, cases are rapidly...
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Monday, June 22, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStocks moved higher last week on news of more Federal Reserve market support and diminished concerns that new COVID-19 cases might lead to another economic shutdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.04%,...
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Just a decade ago, the financial world was abuzz discussing the future of the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. This group of largeish developing countries had little to do with one another, and their...
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There is no such thing as "Europe." Yes, there's this political-economic grouping called the EU, but two of Europe's most important countries are not members. Yes, there's this political-military grouping called NATO, but it is...
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Some good news: Melissa Taylor (ZoG's Director of Research) has been tracking the coronavirus epidemic – particularly in East Asia, which was COVID ground zero – with her usual precision and attention to detail. She’s...
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Outside of China, Iran was the world’s first significant coronavirus epicenter, and it is pretty obvious that tight geopolitical and economic relations among the two – reinforced by American sanctions – served as a...
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Monday, June 15, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetInvestor sentiment turned negative last week, amid an increasing number of COVID-19 cases in states where reopening has been underway as well as a subdued economic forecast from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones...
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Let’s rile everyone up with an uncomfortable statement: Mexico should be a failed state. The issue isn’t cultural, political, or policy-driven, but rather, geographical. Most powers of significance share two geographic...
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Let me bottom-line it: In the United States, the COVID epidemic is now the second-worst in the developed world and among the dozen worst globally. The epidemic will get considerably more intense in just the next few weeks. Red states...
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For the next few days, the team here at Zeihan on Geopolitics will be sharing a few snapshots of the pandemic from around the world. This is less a holistic assessment and instead us taking the temperature of some major countries so...
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Monday, June 8, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetA positive jobs report sent stocks soaring last Friday, capping a solid week as evidence of a global economic recovery outweighed concerns over civil unrest and tensions with China.The Dow Jones Industrial...
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We all know the United States imports a huge volume of finished manufactured goods from the wider world, with China being the largest source. What is less understood is the far larger volume of goods the Americans manufacture at home....
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Monday, June 1, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetThe shortened week, which began with a powerful two-day rally of trading, was enough to drive the markets into another week of solid gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.75%, while the Standard &...
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The past few several weeks have been busy for the Europeans, easily generating more events of consequence than at any time since at least the 2007 financial crisis. There is no specific trigger event here that makes much sense without...
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By Peter Zeihan and Melissa Taylor on May 28, 2020 Coronavirus is primarily a respiratory ailment primarily spread by exhaled droplets from coughs or simple breathing, which is why masks are so effective at preventing an infected...
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetUpbeat comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman and more signs of an economic turnaround combined to help fuel a powerful rally in the stock market last week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.29%, while...
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Monday, May 18, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStocks drifted lower last week, weighed down by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's unsettling comments on the economy and signs of renewed tensions with China.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.65%,...
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The Chinese are intentionally torching their diplomatic relationships with the wider world. The question is why? The short version is that China’s spasming belligerency is a sign not of confidence and strength, but instead...
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The propaganda out of China of late has been…notable. Beijing has accused the French of using their nursing homes as death camps, has blamed Italy for being the source of the coronavirus (at the very peak of Italian deaths),...
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The past few weeks have been…eventful. I make my living anticipating and explaining and projecting change, with an unfortunate emphasis on destabilizing and disintegrative change. Pre-coronavirus the world was already hurtling...
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Monday, May 11, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetDespite a historic downturn in employment, stocks managed to climb higher last week as investors were emboldened by the pace of economic re-openings, both here and abroad.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2...
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Monday, May 4, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStock prices ended the week slightly lower, despite news of positive results from a test trial of a COVID-19 drug treatment and several states easing their economic lockdowns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average...
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In the past five weeks the United States has thrown $3 trillion in new government spending at coronavirus-related bailouts, relief and economic stimulus. In total the US has already spent more on coronavirus-related actions than the...
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Yesterday’s newsletter traced some of the issues that erupt when global transport gets wrecked. Today we’re going to cross that same initial problem into the world of agriculture. It isn’t so much that plummeting oil...
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The novel coronavirus has gutted humanity’s ability to engage in that most basic of social and economic activities: the ability to move. That simple fact has touched off a cascade of consequences, all of which touch off their...
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Monday, April 27, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStock prices bounced around last week as investors reacted to wild swings in the price of oil and reports that called into question the efficacy of two potential virus treatments.The Dow Jones Industrial Average...
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Let’s start with the headline good news. Since our last update on April 19, it appears the COVID-19 epidemic may have plateaued in the United States with direct COVID-caused deaths peaking on April 21 at just under 2700 cases....
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Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. Meatpacking is a messy business almost custom-designed to generate coronavirus outbreaks among the staff. When a cow or hog is brought into the slaughter facility, it is slit, hung,...
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West Texas Intermediate, the oil grade most associated with American production, plunged down to -$40 April 20. You read the right. For a while yesterday, sellers had to pay people forty bucks to take a barrel of crude.As with any...
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Monday, April 20, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStock prices pushed higher last week as news of a White House plan to reopen the economy and reports of a potential COVID-19 treatment helped the market overcome weak economic data and an ugly start to the...
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My partner just got back from a grocery store stock-up. The trip-in has been part of our weekly ritual since this coronavirus thing got going. The post-shopping conversation has a similar ritualistic feel. Whoever stays home queries...
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After the better part of five days of marathon negotiations spearheaded by Saudi Arabia with the goal of eliminating coronavirus-induced overhang in oil supply, global oil producers hammered out April 12 an agreement to reduce oil...
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Monday, April 13, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetThe stock market staged a broad rally this week, buoyed by the prospect that COVID-19's grip on the nation may be easing and news of another Federal Reserve program to help stabilize businesses.The Dow Jones...
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Oil demand is relatively inelastic. That’s a fancy-schmancy economic term that means people and firms’ energy demand doesn’t vary very much from day-to-day or even year-to-year. Driving to work is perhaps the most...
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Monday, April 6, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetModest declines in stock prices this week masked the volatile inter- and intraday price swings as investors digested poor economic data and a warning from the president that the worst days of the COVID-19...
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As a rule I try to stay out of discussions about energy prices. Energy trading is a hectic business with a lot of stress, plagued by fleets of hot-headed issues that have nothing to do with supply or demand or technology. But...
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As governments in Washington, DC and London and Paris took their time to push their respective populations to shelter in place, the novel coronavirus did what it does best: spread quickly and efficiently through dense populations, the...
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Here is the accumulated data of all known cases of coronavirus in the United States, courtesy of The COVID Tracking Project. As you can see the situation is getting both worse and better. Worse in that deaths are starting to rise...
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Monday, March 30, 2020
An open-ended commitment by the Federal Reserve to support American businesses and capital markets along with the passage of a $2 trillion aid package improved investor sentiment and drove a strong rally in stock prices. The Dow Jones...
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There is plenty of negativity and doom and gloom out in the world right now, and in this series there certainly is some of that. Ok, plenty of that. So I thought it might be best to begin the Finance Guide with something a bit...
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Throughout media of all forms, we are hungry for information on coronavirus. Some of this is a flat out are-we-doing-better-or-worse-than-they-are, but most of it is simply to try to put what we know into some sort of context that is...
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The British government announced March 27 that Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for coronavirus, making him the first world leader to do so. As the United Kingdom is an advanced democracy, here at ZoG we are not overly...
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In the age of coronavirus, Europe’s near-term future is bleak. European headlines in coming weeks will be about coronavirus deaths. In large part the issue is demographic. Coronavirus is far more likely to kill those over aged...
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Not all epidemics are created equal, even when everyone is battling the same pathogen. Let's start with timing and intensity. The imminent coronavirus wave of cases about to hit the United States is going to hurt, but it will hurt...
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Monday, March 23, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetThe stock market suffered through another volatile week as it wrestled with the health and economic fallout of the domestic spread of the coronavirus. Swift and decisive actions by the Federal Reserve and policy...
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I just shared a lovely meal with my family. We all brought our own food and chairs, sat outside, and maintained a constant 6ft bubble around everyone, especially my parents. It was hard with a toddler running around, wanting to hug...
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This coming week (March 23-28) the South Koreans will be in the fifth week of their epidemic. To be blunt it is what I’ve been waiting for. The “typical” coronavirus experience for someone who requires...
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Monday, March 16, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetMarkets remained exceptionally volatile, buffeted by the spreading impact of coronavirus, uncertain responses from federal policymakers, and the sudden drop in oil prices.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 10...
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Monday, March 9, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetHeightened coronavirus fears, falling yields, and Super Tuesday primary results sent stocks on a rollercoaster ride of sharp price swings, leaving stocks marginally higher for the week.The Dow Jones Industrial...
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We just had the second-biggest oil price drop on record as Asian markets opened March 8.For the past couple of weeks the Saudis have been attempting to cobble together an oil production cut of about 1.5 million barrels per day. As of...
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In the past couple of weeks coronavirus cases outside of China surged. Particularly worrisome clusters emerged in South Korea and Iran, countries which serve as transport hubs for their respective worlds. US President Donald Trump is...
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Monday, March 2, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStocks fell sharply last week as Wall Street considered how the coronavirus outbreak might influence global business activity and household spending.The selloff became a correction for the U.S. markets. The S&P...
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Monday, February 24, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetTraders paid close attention to coronavirus developments and earnings last week, while wondering how the former might eventually impact the latter. Concern over updated infection numbers moderated risk appetite.A...
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I try to avoid US domestic politics in most of my work. In part because domestic politics are a loud and busy space, and it is easy to have your work get lost in the noise and rage. In part because – especially at the primary...
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Tuesday, February 18, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetDaily headlines about the coronavirus had little impact on stock market averages last week. Earnings and mergers had more influence. All three Wall Street benchmarks improved. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.21%,...
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After three years of drama, on midnight Jan 31 the Brits finally left the European Union. The next piece of the Brexit drama will be a decidedly non-European affair, instead being between a family debate between London and Washington....
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The Philippine government this week began the formal legal process of ejecting US forces from the country and ending the US-Philippine alliance. Chinese involvement in the decision isn’t so much suspected as assumed. The few...
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Monday, February 10, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStocks advanced four days out of five during the past market week, erasing the losses of the week before. The Nasdaq Composite surged 4.04%, the S&P 500 3.17%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.00%. Foreign...
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Monday, February 3, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStock benchmarks declined for a second straight week as coronavirus news tempered risk appetite.The S&P 500 fell 2.14% on the week. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.76%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 2.55%....
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Four things have popped up in the past 48 hours that are worth a look.First, we now have enough preliminary data to say some general things about the virus and the news is good: the virus is neither as deadly nor as communicable as...
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Monday, January 27, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetStock prices fell last week as investors considered the potential health and economic risks of the flu-like coronavirus.Foreign stock markets, as tracked by the broad MSCI EAFE index, fell 1.03% for the week....
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Tuesday, January 21, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetTraders were in an upbeat mood last week, reacting to news out of Washington: the signing of the phase-one trade deal between the U.S. and China as well as the Senate passage of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement...
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Monday, January 13, 2020
The Week on Wall StreetThe market had a choppy five days, with traders reacting to geopolitical developments and weaker-than-expected jobs data. Even so, the three major U.S. equity indices posted weekly gains and continued their...
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It isn’t every day you can say a missile strike means things are calming down, but hey, it’s the Middle East. The rules are different. Overnight Jan 2-3 the United States killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s go-to guy for...
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Monday, January 6, 2020
The Week on Wall Street Stocks descended from record highs Friday, as traders reacted to a U.S. drone strike that killed Iran's top military officer. Oil prices rose more than 3% following the breaking news.[1] Wall Street benchmarks...
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In the middle of the night January 3-4 an American air strike in Baghdad killed Qassem Soleimani, senior General of Iran's Qud's Force, arguably the second most important man in the Iranian state. The Americans blame Soleimani for...
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Monday, December 30, 2019
What Drove the Markets? Four factors influenced investment performance in 2019: a shift in U.S. monetary policy, the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China, earnings, and the economy. Stocks reached record highs in 2019. The...
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December 16 and 17 all the international news that was fit to print showcased announcements in both China and the United States that after some 18 months of talks, tariffs and recriminations, a Phase1 trade deal had been reached. So...
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Monday, December 16, 2019
The Week on Wall Street The U.S. and China announced a limited trade agreement last week. That news lifted U.S. and foreign stocks, leading to weekly gains. Advancing 0.91% on the week, the Nasdaq Composite outperformed the S&P 500...
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Monday, December 9, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Key Wall Street benchmarks were up and down last week – or rather down and then up. A Tuesday retreat was offset by a Friday rally spurred by the Department of Labor’s November jobs report. While the S&P 500...
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Monday, December 2, 2019
The Week on Wall Street As November wrapped up, U.S. equity benchmarks advanced. Stocks were again aided by a sense of optimism that a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal could be near. For the week, the Nasdaq Composite added 1.87%;...
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Monday, November 25, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks declined last week as mixed signals emerged about the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations. The three major Wall Street benchmarks all took weekly losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0...
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Monday, November 18, 2019
The Week on Wall StreetStock benchmarks were little changed for much of last week, but a rally occurred Friday after news broke that the U.S. and China could be closing in on the first phase of a new trade pact. At Friday's close, the...
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Monday, November 11, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Domestic and international stocks rose last week. Risk appetite outweighed concerns about the state of U.S.-China trade discussions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and MSCI EAFE...
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Japan is … odd.Most countries have a very clear chunk of reasonably good land that serves as home to a specific ethnicity. That group forms a government to serve the needs of those people in that place, and then that government...
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Monday, November 4, 2019
The Week on Wall Street A better-than-forecast jobs report prompted a stock market rally Friday, two days after traders witnessed another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week...
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Monday, October 28, 2019
The Week on Wall Street The S&P 500 came within 0.1% of a record close Friday. Stocks were lifted last week by positive news on U.S.-China trade negotiations, plus earnings announcements. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest weekly...
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Canada is… not a normal place. Everything from its settlement patterns to its defense strategy to its national politics to its economic structure is wildly different not just from the United States, but from every other country...
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Monday, October 21, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Earnings helped give the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 a slight lift last week, offsetting investor disappointment over the small scope of the preliminary U.S.-China trade deal reached on October 11. Blue chips...
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American-Mexican relations have been…colorful of late. American President Donald Trump has threatened Mexico with a rising tariff system that would constitute the greatest tariff effort in dollar terms by Americans in their...
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When Donald Trump became president, world leaders fell into two broad buckets. The first thought that if the Americans were going to drop the global mantle of leadership, then perhaps there is some space for us. Russia’s...
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Monday, October 14, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stock prices pushed higher last week, as investors remained hyper-focused on any new developments with the U.S. trade negotiations with China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 0.91%, while the...
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Bonds are sliding toward negative territory across the developed world. Among the largest industrialized economies, only the United States is offering over 2% yields on 30-year bonds. And it's not just the global economic pillars...
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Monday, October 7, 2019
The Week on Wall Street The fourth quarter started with a mixed week for equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.92% for the week; the S&P 500, 0.33%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite improved 0.54%. Overseas stocks pulled...
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Monday, September 30, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks retreated last week. Traders worried that the formal impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump might distract White House officials from their pursuit of a trade deal with China, and shift the focus...
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Monday, September 23, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Investors reacted to two major news items last week, one far more of a surprise than the other. The Federal Reserve did indeed make a rate cut, matching Wall Street expectations. Drone strikes on two of the...
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Monday, September 16, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks edged toward all-time peaks during a relatively calm week marked by easing trade tensions. Friday marked the eighth straight daily advance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[1] Small-cap shares, as...
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Monday, September 9, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks rose last week, with help from two developments: the announcement of further U.S.-China trade talks as well as August hiring and manufacturing numbers that seemed to bolster the argument for a rate cut...
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Tuesday, September 3, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Fears of an impasse in the U.S.-China trade dispute lessened last week. While additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports were scheduled to take effect on September 1, China's government communicated that it...
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Monday, August 26, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Traders assumed that the week's biggest news event would be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole banking conference. Instead, China seized the headlines by announcing new...
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Monday, August 19, 2019
The Week on Wall Street U.S. stock indices saw significant ups and downs last week, with traders looking for economic cues from Treasury yields and also developments in the tariff fight between the U.S. and China. The S&P 500 lost 1...
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Monday, August 12, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks spent much of last week rebounding from a Monday drop that reflected nervousness about the U.S.-China trade fight. By Thursday's closing bell, the S&P 500 had regained all its Monday losses - but it...
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A few months back a South Korean court ruled Japanese firms needed to pay compensation to Korean laborers who worked in Japanese-run factories during the 1910-1945 Japanese occupation of Korea. A big piece of this involved compensation...
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A few months back a South Korean court ruled Japanese firms needed to pay compensation to Korean laborers who worked in Japanese-run factories during the 1910-1945 Japanese occupation of Korea. A big piece of this involved...
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Monday, August 5, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than a decade, in line with Wall Street's expectations. Ironically, stocks had their worst week of 2019. The S&P 500 finished the...
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Monday, July 29, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Last week, investors assessed earnings and the initial estimate of second-quarter economic growth, while awaiting the Federal Reserve's next announcement about interest rates. Stocks rose for the week;...
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Monday, July 22, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stock benchmarks retreated during the first week of the second-quarter earnings season. As some big names shared quarterly results, investors seemed more interested in what might happen at the Federal Reserve's...
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Monday, July 15, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Friday, the S&P 500 settled above 3,000 for the first time, after rising 0.78% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked up a milestone of its own: the blue chips ended the week above 27,000,...
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Monday, July 8, 2019
The Week on Wall Street U.S. stock benchmarks opened a new quarter positively. The S&P 500 gained 1.65% in the opening week of July; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1.21%; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.94%. Overseas, stocks in developed...
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Not one to collect moss, Donald Trump shot directly from the G20 summit to South Korea July 1 where he nearly skipped the pro-forma niceties with the South Koreans for a tete-a-tete with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. Not only did...
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Hong Kong has been one of the most important economic locations on the planet for over a century. China has always had problems holding together, but it has also always been a land of opportunity for outsiders who held a logistical...
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The American Retreat, Part II: Soldiers of Fortune President Donald Trump has a knack for making Prime Ministers and Presidents hope to remain unnoticed. It’s a stunning ability given that national leaders aren’t exactly...
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I recently had the opportunity to be in New Zealand and Australia for a few days. Being on the opposite side of the planet is a bit magical – and I’m not talking about the people, culture, topography, food or alcohol....
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Monday, July 1, 2019
The Week on Wall Street A month of gains for stocks ended with a weekly retreat. The S&P 500 lost 0.30%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.32%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.45%. In contrast, overseas shares, tracked by the MSCI EAFE...
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I’m going to do something I loathe and quote something I read on Twitter June 24. In a pair of posts U.S. President Donald Trump asserted: Diction and statistical issues aside, these tweets comprise the 92 most important words...
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Monday, June 24, 2019
The Week on Wall Street The S&P 500 hit an all-time peak of 2,964.03, in intraday trading Friday, while improving 2.20% across five market days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite posted respective, 5-day advances...
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Monday, June 17, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks advanced for a second straight week. The S&P 500 benchmark rose 0.47%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.70%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.41%. Overseas shares, as tracked by the MSCI EAFE developed markets...
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Monday, June 10, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks rallied during a week in which Wall Street was buffeted by headlines. The S&P 500 rose 4.41%. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average respectively added 3.88% and 4.71%. The MSCI EAFE index...
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Monday, June 3, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks struggled during a 4-day market week as the U.S.-China trade standoff continued to weigh on the minds of market participants. From the Friday, May 24 close to the Friday, May 31 close, the S&P 500...
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
The Week on Wall StreetStocks drifted lower last week as investors considered the possibility that the world's two largest economies might take some time to resolve key trade issues. The S&P 500 retreated 1.17%; the Nasdaq Composite,...
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Monday, May 20, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks fell sharply at the start of last week over trade tensions, then recovered with help from strong earnings and indications that U.S.-China trade talks would continue. Even so, the major indices had a down...
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On May 15 the U.S. government put Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and nearly all its affiliates and subsidiaries on an export black list, which prohibits American firms from selling them high-tech products. Much has been made of...
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Monday, May 13, 2019
The Week on Wall Street As we noted recently, Wall Street has a wandering eye. Last week, it focused on the new tariff threats in the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute. Stocks fell across five trading sessions: the Dow Jones Industrial...
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Monday, May 6, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks were up and down last week, and the three major benchmarks ended up little changed after five trading days. The S&P 500 rose 0.20% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial...
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Monday, April 29, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks returned to record territory, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at historic highs. The S&P gained 1.20% for the week; the Nasdaq, 1.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged,...
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Monday, April 22, 2019
The Week on Wall Street A short and relatively placid trading week wrapped up Thursday, with the major indices turning in mixed performances. The S&P 500 retreated 0.08%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.17%, and the Dow Jones...
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Local politics, even at the national level, are rarely a focus for students of geopolitics. Personalities play too big a role in the mishmash while local outcomes often play too small a role globally. Local affairs take up an outsized...
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Monday, April 15, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks broke out of a narrow range on Friday following news that two major banks grew their bottom line in the first quarter. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.79%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.91%. The Dow Jones...
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Monday, April 8, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks just posted their second straight weekly gain. Investors were encouraged by the latest jobs report and new signs of progress on a U.S.-China trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.17% in...
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Friday, April 5, 2019
7 Tips to Retire Early Whether you love your job or dread every day at work, one day you will retire. How you retire and how soon is largely up to you. For instance, a 20-year-old worker who consistently saves just $500 a month could...
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Early April 3 United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May met with the leader of the Labor opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to discuss a common way forward on the UK’s impending divorce from the European Union. Drama ensued. Markets and...
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Monday, March 25, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Friday, the yield of the 3-month Treasury bill exceeded the yield of the 10-year Treasury note for the first time in 12 years. For some analysts, this "inverted yield curve" may imply a short-term lessening of...
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I woke up Monday morning to find a bit of a debate on my Twitter feed over assessments of my ability (or lack thereof) to pontificate on trends in the energy sector. Specifically, Art Berman -- @aeberman12 -- noted: “I told...
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Monday, March 18, 2019
The Week on Wall Street The big story last week was the sudden grounding of Boeing 737 Max 8 and 9 passenger jets in dozens of countries. The financial effects of this ban could potentially impact the airline industry and segments of...
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The Decivilization of Venezuela Of late, Venezuela has had a wretched time of things. As a rule I attempt to be judgement-free when it comes to evaluating governing systems. For the most part, governments—like economies and...
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Monday, March 11, 2019
The Week on Wall Street As in February, investors spent most of the first full trading week of March hoping for new details in U.S.-China trade negotiations. While they waited, stock benchmarks drifted downward. From Monday's open to...
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Tuesday, March 5, 2019
Since its introduction in 1974, the Individual Retirement Account (IRA), has been a powerful vehicle for long-term savers. The IRA has undergone a number of changes and iterations over the years, but the basic concept remained...
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Monday, March 4, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks lost a little ground as February gave way to March. While domestic and overseas political developments made headlines, the market stayed relatively calm: from Monday's open through Friday's close, the...
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Monday, February 25, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks rallied last week as optimism about a potential U.S.-China trade deal grew. The S&P 500 advanced 0.80% during the 4-day trading week to 2,792.67. The Nasdaq Composite improved 0.86% to 7,527.54, and the...
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
The Week on Wall Street Stocks ended a good week on a high note, as hints of progress in U.S.-China trade talks encouraged investors. When the closing bell rang Friday, the S&P 500 settled at 2,775.60, after rising 2.50% in five days....
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Geopolitics has two speeds. The first is glacial. The sort of huge, multi-generational trends that I spend most of my time studying and charting don’t shift easily or quickly. Whether the issue is pushing an army over a mountain...
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It is always dangerous writing about unfolding events. With that in mind, Part I is just about where we are now. Part II is about the future. Assuming for the moment that Nicholas Maduro has indeed fallen from power and his regime is...
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Fire in Venezuela, Part I of II So…there might have just been a military coup in Venezuela. Not hard to see the justification. The economic policies of the now-deceased Hugo Chavez largely destroyed what used to be the...
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Monday, January 14, 2019
After months of volatility, markets relaxed a bit last week. For the first time since October, the S&P 500 went 5 days without a 1% gain or loss.[1] The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, also fell to lower than 20 - in December, it...
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Monday, January 7, 2019
U.S. markets experienced more wild sessions last week before ending in positive territory as the recent turbulence continued. In fact, we are currently in the middle of some of the most volatile market performance in more than eight...
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Monday, December 31, 2018
The close of the year provides an opportunity for investors to step back and consider the wider financial landscape. This week, we're reviewing some key issues that defined 2018, as well as some factors that may influence financial...
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Monday, December 24, 2018
Last week, domestic markets had some of their worst performance in 10 years.[1] The S&P 500 lost 7.05%, the Dow declined 6.87%, and the NASDAQ dropped 8.36%. All three indexes have now lost at least 8% in 2018.[2] On Friday, December...
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Monday, December 17, 2018
Last week brought more volatility to the markets. While domestic indexes had some rallies as positive trade news emerged earlier in the week, by Friday, December 14, they had erased any gains. The last time major U.S. indexes ended in...
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So here’s where I get a bit nervous. One of the great truths in geopolitics between 1950 and 2015 is that American domestic politics barely mattered at all. Support for the global Order was strongly bipartisan and it was...
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Monday, October 1, 2018
One of the keys to successful investing over the long term is the ability to determine what headlines are important to the markets and investment portfolios, and which are just market “noise.” The 3rd quarter of 2017...
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Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Markets remained volatile in the second quarter of 2018, as a series of political and geopolitical events caused temporary pullbacks in stocks. But in contrast to the first quarter, U.S. economic growth and corporate earnings reminded...
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Sunday, April 1, 2018
Long-absent volatility returned to the markets in the beginning of this year. Multiple macroeconomic surprises erased January’s strong gains in US stocks and caused the S&P 500 to finish the quarter with a small loss. If...
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Monday, January 1, 2018
The 4th quarter of 2017 was one of the best quarters for stocks in years, as broad gains were driven by anticipation and passage of the Tax Cut and Reform Bill, acceleration in economic activity, and rising corporate earnings. Looking...
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