Weekly Market Insights | Stocks Advance, Despite D.C. Shutdown

Stocks rose last week, looking past the government shutdown and apparently discounting any impact it may have on the economy.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved up 1.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.32 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.10 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 2.53 percent.^1,2

Shutdown Talk

The S&P and Nasdaq rose out of the gate Monday morning despite the threat of a possible government shutdown hanging over investor sentiment.³

As the midnight deadline approached for Congress to pass a continuing resolution that would temporarily fund the federal government, the prospect of a shutdown dominated market sentiment. The White House discussed permanent layoffs of some federal workers, stoking fears of further slowing an already sluggish labor market.⁴

Stocks initially fell on news of the shutdown but recovered by midday, driven by growing investor expectations that the shutdown would be short-lived. The S&P closed above 6700 for the first time.⁵

Momentum tempered after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested gross domestic product (GDP) may take a hit due to the shutdown, but all three averages recovered and closed at record highs.⁶

Stocks were mixed on Friday after the Senate failed to pass dueling funding bills that would have prevented the shutdown from entering its second week.⁷

Jobs Report Delayed

Investors have looked past—but continue to be jittery about—the government shutdown and its potential impact on an otherwise resilient economy, which is experiencing a hiring slowdown.

One of the first impacts felt from the shutdown was the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, but delayed until the government reopens for business. However, ADP’s monthly report, released on Wednesday, showed that corporate employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, below the forecast of 45,000 new jobs.⁸

This Week: Key Economic Data

Tuesday: Trade Deficit—Goods & Services. Consumer Credit. Fed speeches: Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President), Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair for Supervision), Stephen Miran (Fed governor), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President).

Wednesday: Fed speeches: Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President), Michael Barr (Fed governor), Neel Kashkari. September FOMC Meeting Minutes. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction.

Thursday: Fed speeches: Chair Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Michael Barr. Weekly Jobless Claims. Wholesale Inventories. Fed Balance Sheet.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment. Federal Budget. Fed President Chicago Austan Goolsbee speech.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; October 3, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)

^{Source: Zacks, October 3, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition.”

– Adam Smith

What is the Premium Tax Credit?

The premium tax credit (PTC) is a refundable credit that helps eligible individuals and families cover the premiums for their health insurance purchased through the Health Insurance Marketplace. There are a few requirements to qualify for the PTC, including:

• Having a household income within a specific range (If you or your spouse received unemployment compensation for any week beginning in 2021, your household income may fall within this range)
• Not filing a tax return using the filing status Married Filing Separately
• Not being claimed as a dependent by another person
• Have health insurance through the Health Insurance Marketplace
• Are not able to get affordable coverage through an eligible employer-sponsored plan that provides minimum value.
• Do not qualify for coverage through a government program

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please consult with a qualified tax professional to discuss your specific tax issues.

Tip adapted from IRS⁹

White Bean Chili Recipe

Break out that Dutch oven because this white bean chili recipe is perfect for winter. 

Ingredients

• 1 small yellow onion, diced
• 1 tbsp olive oil
• 2 cloves minced garlic
• 2 cans of chicken broth
• 1 can of diced green chilies
• 1 1/2 tsp cumin
• 1/2 tsp paprika, dried oregano, and ground coriander
• 1/4 tsp cayenne pepper
• salt and pepper to taste
• 1 pkg light cream cheese
• 1 1/4 cup frozen or fresh corn
• 2 cans of cannellini beans
• 2 1/2 cups cooked chicken (shredded)
• 1 Tbsp fresh lime juice
• 2 Tbsp chopped fresh cilantro, plus more for serving

Directions

• Heat olive oil in a large pot over medium-high heat. Sauté onion and garlic.
• Add chicken broth, green chilies, and all seasonings. Bring the mixture just to a boil, then reduce the heat to medium-low and simmer for 15 minutes.
• Drain and rinse beans. Set 1 cup whole beans aside. Transfer 1 cup of beans to a food processor and 1/4 cup of broth from the soup. Puree until nearly smooth.
• Add cream cheese to the soup along with corn, whole beans, and pureed beans, and stir well. Simmer for 5 - 10 minutes.
  Stir in chicken, fresh lime juice, and cilantro.

Tip adapted from Cooking Classy¹⁰

It flies, but has no wings. It slips away, but cannot be held in the hand. What is it?

Last Week's Riddle: Name the three English-language three-letter words that begin and end with the letter E.
Answer: Eve, ewe, and eye.

Maafushi Island, Maldives
Maafushi, Maldives

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. WSJ.com, October 3, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, October 3, 2025}

^{3. CNBC.com, September 29, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, September 30, 2025}

^{5. WSJ.com, October 1, 2025}

^{6. CNBC.com, October 2, 2025}

^{7. CNBC.com, October 3, 2025}

^{8. WSJ.com, October 1, 2025}

^{9. IRS.gov, May 29, 2025}

^{10. Cooking Classy, June 11, 2025}